Bristol After the Oil Runs Out

How would Bristol cope if oil ran out or became too expensive to buy?

That's the question addressed by a recent report by the Bristol Partnership and Bristol City Council.

Based

on the concept of Peak Oil - the view that at a some future point, "the

amount of oil produced globally in a single year reaches its absolute

maximum" - the report addresses the probability of life in Bristol when

oil is far less available and costs far more than it does today.

Richard Penney, chair of the Bristol Partnership, explains: “Although experts

continue to debate exactly when peak oil will occur, there is growing

consensus that it will be in the next ten to twenty years, and that we

have to start making plans and changes now.”

Beyond

its obvious use in transport, oil is also essential in the production

of plastics, packaging and synthetics. An "oil crunch" would, according

the report, fundamentally threaten the stability and prosperity of the

city in a number of ways:

transport systems would be unable to copehealthcare would be seriously disruptedfood shortages would become common and severe (as much food is transported over long supply chains)public services would be placed under severe strainsocial cohesion would be challenged, with a rise in fuel-related crimes

Estimating

that the city of Bristol consumes approximately 11,500-12,000 barrels

of oil per day, and facing the fact that there is no economically

viable alternative at present, the report outlines a number of

proposals in response to a significant decline in affordable oil.

Transportation

The

report proposes an active policy of relocating employment and services

closer to where people live (to minimise the need for travel) as well

as making significant investments in bus and rail services and other

forms of mass transit. Better provision should also be made for cyclists and pedestrians as well as making efficient use of alternative fuels.

Food

Describing this as a key priority, recommendations include:

encouraging farming methods that build fertility into the soilprotecting productive farmland on the outskirts of the citypromoting more seasonal foodsencouraging local residents to grow their own food in gardens, community gardens and allotments

Healthcare

With over 315,000 patient journeys per year currently made by Great

Western Ambulance Service, the report's authors highlight the need for

a fresh emphasis on preventative health care, careful travel planning

for health service staff, less energy intensive models of healthcare

and the development of renewable energy generation at hospitals and

health clinics.

Business

Although much of the report - titled "Building a Positive Future for

Bristol After Peak Oil" - focuses on public service issues, attention

is also given to businesses in the era after a possible "oil crunch".

Predicting business failure and economic downturn following such an

event, the report describes substantial volatility in the price of raw

materials, with companies with long supply chains being most severely

hit.

Highlighting the need for low energy buildings, energy efficiency and

greater homeworking, the report predicts that localised business with

strong local suppliers will stand a better chance of survival in such

an economic climate. 

Barbara Janke, leader of the council, said: “As part of our Green

Capital programme, we are already tackling climate change issues head

on by reducing our dependence on oil and ambitiously working to cut our

carbon footprint by 3% every year. Whilst this report paints a picture of how life could be if there

is an oil crunch, it also arms us with the information we need so that

we can begin to take major action now.”

The full report can be viewed here.

Photo credit sjorford.